Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 94941.214412 100104.572936 105265.044613 110806.169140 116584.106423 122427.808641 128781.219012
2025-11-02 86393.517162 94274.839326 102368.998386 111292.585477 120843.894587 130749.833956 141789.517961
2025-11-09 80008.606193 89711.510849 99891.951647 111348.506633 123860.315662 137087.864089 152107.383044
2025-11-16 75877.786723 87024.254431 98928.365405 112552.543522 127677.638369 143917.665496 162636.307427
2025-11-23 71711.928632 83917.020615 97158.019180 112538.916450 129860.758645 148711.378007 170721.979525
2025-11-30 69154.331961 82375.816449 96919.310887 114034.256169 133550.917527 155038.783359 180409.696559
2025-12-07 66641.455917 80701.721579 96366.865596 115023.321273 136541.750058 160485.704444 189042.928284
2025-12-14 63829.365088 78520.255541 95088.074191 115043.672900 138308.706509 164453.986632 195931.027511
2025-12-21 61465.570993 76736.024871 94154.456750 115356.518825 140321.770735 168635.654249 203019.328509
2025-12-28 60073.125916 76017.358889 94394.220960 116977.874652 143810.367765 174493.998033 212045.710771
2026-01-04 58565.034995 75081.403066 94309.010492 118155.845770 146733.752749 179670.766751 220277.946704
2026-01-11 56944.505118 73935.280957 93908.003377 118899.424745 149097.795184 184165.386879 227704.500386
2026-01-18 55109.473252 72476.874138 93093.302301 119121.098846 150833.545720 187937.113701 234327.718075
2026-01-25 53521.114986 71266.060508 92530.488811 119607.027381 152859.841732 192045.301549 241365.949313
2026-02-01 51815.946877 69846.604811 91655.601560 119660.009378 154320.354531 195450.972982 247556.140552
2026-02-08 50814.050590 69274.094202 91794.441968 120935.805654 157259.781835 200639.627353 255917.952441
2026-02-15 49256.624996 67938.666163 90931.784388 120921.070317 158573.973296 203833.637918 261853.185329
2026-02-22 48533.310919 67647.617335 91359.927533 122506.922499 161867.252959 209453.296965 270779.645632
2026-03-01 47607.234694 67058.633429 91381.103999 123555.761374 164477.038714 214234.206978 278695.897193
2026-03-08 46270.833932 65889.167729 90621.807816 123577.339548 165769.080835 217372.205357 284584.199272
2026-03-15 45134.992179 64949.495648 90126.773126 123909.075202 167432.876542 220963.166265 291041.239069
2026-03-22 44647.454593 64855.618938 90714.710701 125628.180945 170862.631449 226773.422775 300299.055265
2026-03-29 43987.261528 64506.356245 90950.337728 126877.013934 173686.702122 231831.898449 308640.871468